In
a quest to find out how foreign investors work, I managed to find out some
striking statistics that completely blew me away. Here is a comparison of “Locally constructed projects vs. foreign/multilateral
funded projects.”
Project
|
Naugarh Gad
|
Lower Modi
|
Kabeli A
|
Kabeli B-1
|
Location
|
Darchula
|
Parbat
|
Pancthar
|
Pancthar/Taplejung
|
Capacity
|
8.5 MW
|
10 MW
|
37.6 MW
|
25 MW
|
Type
|
RoR
|
RoR
|
Peaking RoR
|
RoR
|
PPA Rate
|
NPR. 4 and 7
|
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
|
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
|
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
|
Total Energy
|
51.93 GWh
|
61 GWh
|
206 GWh
|
141.7 GWh
|
Energy per MW
|
6.1 GWh
|
6.1 GWh
|
5.5 GWh
|
5.7 GWh
|
Investors
|
Nepali Investors
|
Nepali Investors
|
Nepali and Foreign
Investors
|
Nepali Investors
|
Financed by
|
NPR. 985 million by
Nepali banks
|
NPR 1.25 billion by
Nepali banks
|
NPR 4 billion loan
by IDA, NPR 600 million grant by IDA, NPR 1.93 billion loan from IFC and NPR
1.93 million loan from Canada Climate Change Program (CCCP)
|
NPR 2.8 billion by
Nepali banks
|
Total Cost
|
NPR. 1.35 billion
|
NPR. 2.114 billion
|
US $ 108 million or
NPR 10.8 billion
|
NPR 4 billion
|
Cost per MW
|
NPR. 159 million
|
NPR 214 million
|
NPR. 287 million
|
NPR 160 million
|
Status
|
Expected to come in
operation within a month
|
In operation since
2012
|
Expected to come in
operation by 2018
|
In construction phase;
expected to come in operation within three years
|
The
influx of foreign investors, particularly in hydropower development is
welcoming. But after looking at the above table, I have to rethink.
Kabeli
A is developed by Butwal Power Company and InfraCo Limited of Singapore (74%
stake). It is funded by World Bank group. Except Kabeli A, all other projects
in the above table belong to Nepali investors and developed by local resources.
The projects are in operation, near to operation and construction phase.
Findings.
Findings.
The
foreign/multilateral funded project does not produce any extra ordinary amount
of electricity. In fact, it generates the lowest energy per MW.
The
Power Purchase Agreement is done with NEA so the PPA rates are similar. Interestingly, it is the most expensive project. The project cost per MW is
almost double compared to locally constructed projects.
(I
have not included Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project by the way which has a per
MW cost of less than NPR 100 million. This would completely blow foreign funded project out of the water.)
However,
the project is feasible even at this project cost (I must say). This is due to
the interest rate. IFC normally charges 4 percent.
Why their
projects are so costly?
Getting
loan from IFC is not easy. No Nepali developers will ever think of getting IFC’s
loan. Their so called ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) standard is
pretty complex. In order to maintain the standards prescribed by these
multilateral organizations, international designers, contractors and consultants have to be
hired. And these people and companies do not come cheap. These are the main components
which add additional cost.
In simple, multilateral organization have no
faith in local expertise at all.
Are their
projects better than local ones?
Local developers have a proven experience of operating projects for decades. In addition,
I would like to take an instance of Upper Bhotekoshi.
Upper
Bhotekoshi with a capacity of 45 MW was first developed by American company
called Panda Energy (now they have sold their stakes to Nepali investors). The
project suffered a huge damage during last year’s landslide. If international
standards are set so high, why couldn’t they predict it? Slope Stability
Analysis could have predicted it. Also, this project is badly hit by the
earthquake that struck two weeks back.
So
the point is; except natural calamities, almost all projects (foreign and
local) are doing well.
There
is a huge criticism about the way multilateral organizations are operating in
developing countries like ours. Their projects cost are always at the higher
side.
One
of the elements is the expectation from locals. Locals demand for irrational
compensations when such organizations are involved. But more than that, the
main reason for escalated cost is the compliance with technical, environmental
and social aspects for which they prefer international companies and
consultants.
World
Bank has claimed that the project design of Kabeli A reflects the lessons
learned from hydropower projects worldwide, including those in the Himalayas
where similar conditions exist. According to World Bank “The lessons
suggest avoiding delays in project preparation and implementation, improving
social and environmental management, enhancing sediment handling capacity, and
improving the long term sustainability of the project”.
Whatever
their reason is, the main objective of hydropower project is to generate electricity
as far as I know. If locals have proved the cost effective way of constructing
hydropower projects, then why not support them?
Local
developers are paying interest rate of 10 to 12 percent and still making
project at lower cost. But even with 4 percent interest rate, Kabeli A is one
of the most expensive projects in Nepal. Remember, two projects of 37.6 MW each
can be constructed with Kabeli A’s cost.
Different hydro power projects can have different per MW costs. It all depends on the site characteristics. e.g. what is the head and flow of the Kabeli A project as compared to Kabeli B? What are the site conditions - road access, remoteness, transmission line length? I am not saying that the reason the author has given is incorrect. Foreign funded projects may have different standards to which design & other studies are conducted. Multinational consultants are always going to be costlier.
ReplyDeleteAlso, interest rate may be low, but it must be for a dollar denominated debt. If the Nepali Rupee keeps depreciating against the USD, the project will end up paying a much higher interest rate in NPR terms. Nepali developers who take loans from local banks are paying in NPR and hence do not have forex risk. Is the tariff paid by the NEA in USD or in NPR?
I tried my best to make it a fair comparison. Below are my parameters and the answers to your queries.
Delete1) I tried my best to include similar size projects.
2) All the projects are either newly constructed projects or at the construction stage to ensure reliability of the comparison.
3) Kabeli A and Kabeli B are in the same corridor within a 6 km stretch.
4) Kabeli A and Kabeli B are close to Mechi highway. The length of access roads from Mechi Highway to Kabeli A and B are 7.5 km and 8 km respectively. These projects are in the eastern part of Nepal. The other two projects are situated in the Western part of Nepal. Eastern Nepal is far more developed than the western part. Anyways, these projects are evenly matched location wise.
5) Both Kabeli A and B will evacuate power through Amarpur substation. Kabeli B has to construct about 4 km transmission line whereas the length of transmission line for Kabeli A is almost zero. NEA is constructing a 132 kV transmission line under World Bank funding. The transmission line length of Naugarh Gad and Lower Modi are 5 and 8 km respectively. Kabeli A has upper hand in this segment.
6) You may argue that Kabeli B is still under construction. The actual cost of this project has not arrived yet. But it is the same case for Kabeli A too. It is also an estimated cost. Cost overruns can happen in both projects. You never know. So it is even, I guess.
7) All the projects have Nepali currency PPA including Kabeli A. Except Naugarh Gad, these projects have same PPA rates.
8) Gross Head: Naugarh Gad-155 m, Lower Modi- 50 m, Kabeli A- 116.8 m and Kabeli B- 93.80 m. If we accept the general concept of "higher the head, lower the project cost" then Kabeli A is in second position.
9) Design Discharge:- Naugarh Gad- 7.46 m3/sec, Lower Modi-16 m3/sec, Kabeli A- 37.73 m3/sec and Kabeli B- 35.14 m3/sec. All the projects are designed at Q40% except Naugarh Gad which is Q43%. The design discharge of Kabeli A is the largest. Hence, it is obvious to have bigger structures. But I do not think it is that relevant since the capacity of the project is also the largest. Instead I have to say few things about economies of scale. Kabeli A, the largest project among four, is supposed to enjoy the economies of scale. Clearly, it is not the case.
I agree with your following points:-
Delete1) The project cost is different at different locations. You are absolutely right. Hydropower project cost is site specific. Not only the location, but also the types of structures used in these projects are important factors for determining the total project cost. Length of tunnel, penstock, length and height of barrage, numbers of chambers in desilting basin and so on are crucial. That is why I have tried my best to include the similar projects.
2) As I mentioned in the post, Kabeli A is feasible even at this cost. This is due to lower interest rate from IFC.
3) Multinational consultants are always expensive.
4) "Foreign funded projects may have different standards to which design & other studies are conducted". I could not agree more. This is the primary reason why the project cost is always at a higher side. I hope you agree with me in this case. Huge chunk money goes into the pocket of their so called international consultants and expertise.
I disagree with your argument:-
Delete1) Higher cost due to forex risk. Higher cost means higher debt. When you have a local currency PPA, I think every foreign investor will try to do the cost control in order to mitigate the risk of currency depreciation against US dollar. I will elaborate this.
Hydropower revenue stream is pretty much fixed beforehand because of the pre-determined PPA rates and the contracted energy. In such case, all you can play is the cost side of the project to make it more profitable. The lower the project cost, the higher the profit margin you get from the fixed revenue.
My views after the comparison:-
DeleteBefore moving to my opinions, you forgot an important thing. All the project schemes are RoR except Kabeli A which is PRoR. Pondage project requires more land compared to RoR. Also, the structures in the headworks area will be big. This will surely increase the project cost. But I do not think it is an acceptable excuse.
We do not have "time of the day rates" or "peak hour rate". We have flat PPA rates. As an investor why to invest more when you do not get higher rates for providing additional energy in the peak hours? So I consider this to be unnecessary. I do not understand why Kabeli A has gone for peaking RoR. Is it a mandatory requirement to get IFC's funding?
Anyways, the way they escalate the project cost in the names of so many compliances and international consultants are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. Some may argue that the project cost is justifiable as long as the project is financially attractive.
In fact, it is correct. But, is it the right way when local developers are constructing projects at almost the half price?
Thank you for taking the time out to respond. I agree with most of your points, except for the forex one, which is very important to understand, especially since the PPA is in NPR.
ReplyDeleteWhen you have a USD denominated debt, you have to return it in USD. Both interest and the principal amounts.
You may have borrowed 100 USD, when the rate was say, 100 NPR/USD, so you got 10,000 NPR. When returning, if the NPR depreciates, you will have to return the same 100 USD, at a rate of say 120 NPR/USD. So now, even though you got 10,000 NPR initially, you may have to pay back 12,000 NPR (100 USD) as per the rate prevailing.
The same goes with interest paid too. If the NPR depreciates, the amount paid in NPR keeps on increasing. That is the reason why the interest rate on dollar denominated debt is lower than the one denominated in NPR.
Inflation, interest rate and currency depreciation are all interconnected. Economics.
I understand the pain of local currency PPA for USD denominated debt. But how does escalating project is interrelated to local currency PPA? If I were you, I would focus on lowering the project cost to mitigate the currency depreciation in such case. Lower cost means lower debt which will eventually mitigate this risk to some extent.
Delete