Friday 8 May 2015

Locally constructed projects vs. foreign/multilateral funded projects



In a quest to find out how foreign investors work, I managed to find out some striking statistics that completely blew me away. Here is a comparison of “Locally constructed projects vs. foreign/multilateral funded projects.


Project
Naugarh Gad
Lower Modi
Kabeli A
Kabeli B-1
Location
Darchula
Parbat
Pancthar
Pancthar/Taplejung
Capacity
8.5 MW
10 MW
37.6 MW
25 MW
Type
RoR
RoR
Peaking RoR
RoR
PPA Rate
NPR. 4 and 7
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
NPR. 4.80 and 8.40
Total Energy
51.93 GWh
61 GWh
206 GWh
141.7 GWh
Energy per MW
6.1 GWh
6.1 GWh
5.5 GWh
5.7 GWh
Investors
Nepali Investors
Nepali Investors
Nepali and Foreign Investors
Nepali Investors
Financed by
NPR. 985 million by Nepali banks
NPR 1.25 billion by Nepali banks
NPR 4 billion loan by IDA, NPR 600 million grant by IDA, NPR 1.93 billion loan from IFC and NPR 1.93 million loan from Canada Climate Change Program (CCCP)
NPR 2.8 billion by Nepali banks
Total Cost
NPR. 1.35 billion
NPR. 2.114 billion
US $ 108 million or NPR 10.8 billion
NPR 4 billion
Cost per MW
NPR. 159 million
NPR 214 million
NPR. 287 million
NPR 160 million
Status
Expected to come in operation within a month
In operation since 2012
Expected to come in operation by 2018
In construction phase; expected to come in operation within three years

The influx of foreign investors, particularly in hydropower development is welcoming. But after looking at the above table, I have to rethink.

Kabeli A is developed by Butwal Power Company and InfraCo Limited of Singapore (74% stake). It is funded by World Bank group. Except Kabeli A, all other projects in the above table belong to Nepali investors and developed by local resources. The projects are in operation, near to operation and construction phase.

Findings.

The foreign/multilateral funded project does not produce any extra ordinary amount of electricity. In fact, it generates the lowest energy per MW.

The Power Purchase Agreement is done with NEA so the PPA rates are similar. Interestingly, it is the most expensive project. The project cost per MW is almost double compared to locally constructed projects.

(I have not included Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project by the way which has a per MW cost of less than NPR 100 million. This would completely blow foreign funded project out of the water.)

However, the project is feasible even at this project cost (I must say). This is due to the interest rate. IFC normally charges 4 percent.

Why their projects are so costly?

Getting loan from IFC is not easy. No Nepali developers will ever think of getting IFC’s loan. Their so called ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) standard is pretty complex. In order to maintain the standards prescribed by these multilateral organizations, international designers, contractors and consultants have to be hired. And these people and companies do not come cheap. These are the main components which add additional cost.

 In simple, multilateral organization have no faith in local expertise at all.

Are their projects better than local ones?

Local developers have a proven experience of operating projects for decades. In addition, I would like to take an instance of Upper Bhotekoshi.

Upper Bhotekoshi with a capacity of 45 MW was first developed by American company called Panda Energy (now they have sold their stakes to Nepali investors). The project suffered a huge damage during last year’s landslide. If international standards are set so high, why couldn’t they predict it? Slope Stability Analysis could have predicted it. Also, this project is badly hit by the earthquake that struck two weeks back.

So the point is; except natural calamities, almost all projects (foreign and local) are doing well.  

There is a huge criticism about the way multilateral organizations are operating in developing countries like ours. Their projects cost are always at the higher side.

One of the elements is the expectation from locals. Locals demand for irrational compensations when such organizations are involved. But more than that, the main reason for escalated cost is the compliance with technical, environmental and social aspects for which they prefer international companies and consultants.

World Bank has claimed that the project design of Kabeli A reflects the lessons learned from hydropower projects worldwide, including those in the Himalayas where similar conditions exist. According to World Bank “The lessons suggest avoiding delays in project preparation and implementation, improving social and environmental management, enhancing sediment handling capacity, and improving the long term sustainability of the project”.

Whatever their reason is, the main objective of hydropower project is to generate electricity as far as I know. If locals have proved the cost effective way of constructing hydropower projects, then why not support them?

Local developers are paying interest rate of 10 to 12 percent and still making project at lower cost. But even with 4 percent interest rate, Kabeli A is one of the most expensive projects in Nepal. Remember, two projects of 37.6 MW each can be constructed with Kabeli A’s cost.

7 comments:

  1. Different hydro power projects can have different per MW costs. It all depends on the site characteristics. e.g. what is the head and flow of the Kabeli A project as compared to Kabeli B? What are the site conditions - road access, remoteness, transmission line length? I am not saying that the reason the author has given is incorrect. Foreign funded projects may have different standards to which design & other studies are conducted. Multinational consultants are always going to be costlier.

    Also, interest rate may be low, but it must be for a dollar denominated debt. If the Nepali Rupee keeps depreciating against the USD, the project will end up paying a much higher interest rate in NPR terms. Nepali developers who take loans from local banks are paying in NPR and hence do not have forex risk. Is the tariff paid by the NEA in USD or in NPR?

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    Replies
    1. I tried my best to make it a fair comparison. Below are my parameters and the answers to your queries.

      1) I tried my best to include similar size projects.
      2) All the projects are either newly constructed projects or at the construction stage to ensure reliability of the comparison.
      3) Kabeli A and Kabeli B are in the same corridor within a 6 km stretch.
      4) Kabeli A and Kabeli B are close to Mechi highway. The length of access roads from Mechi Highway to Kabeli A and B are 7.5 km and 8 km respectively. These projects are in the eastern part of Nepal. The other two projects are situated in the Western part of Nepal. Eastern Nepal is far more developed than the western part. Anyways, these projects are evenly matched location wise.
      5) Both Kabeli A and B will evacuate power through Amarpur substation. Kabeli B has to construct about 4 km transmission line whereas the length of transmission line for Kabeli A is almost zero. NEA is constructing a 132 kV transmission line under World Bank funding. The transmission line length of Naugarh Gad and Lower Modi are 5 and 8 km respectively. Kabeli A has upper hand in this segment.
      6) You may argue that Kabeli B is still under construction. The actual cost of this project has not arrived yet. But it is the same case for Kabeli A too. It is also an estimated cost. Cost overruns can happen in both projects. You never know. So it is even, I guess.
      7) All the projects have Nepali currency PPA including Kabeli A. Except Naugarh Gad, these projects have same PPA rates.
      8) Gross Head: Naugarh Gad-155 m, Lower Modi- 50 m, Kabeli A- 116.8 m and Kabeli B- 93.80 m. If we accept the general concept of "higher the head, lower the project cost" then Kabeli A is in second position.
      9) Design Discharge:- Naugarh Gad- 7.46 m3/sec, Lower Modi-16 m3/sec, Kabeli A- 37.73 m3/sec and Kabeli B- 35.14 m3/sec. All the projects are designed at Q40% except Naugarh Gad which is Q43%. The design discharge of Kabeli A is the largest. Hence, it is obvious to have bigger structures. But I do not think it is that relevant since the capacity of the project is also the largest. Instead I have to say few things about economies of scale. Kabeli A, the largest project among four, is supposed to enjoy the economies of scale. Clearly, it is not the case.

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    2. I agree with your following points:-

      1) The project cost is different at different locations. You are absolutely right. Hydropower project cost is site specific. Not only the location, but also the types of structures used in these projects are important factors for determining the total project cost. Length of tunnel, penstock, length and height of barrage, numbers of chambers in desilting basin and so on are crucial. That is why I have tried my best to include the similar projects.
      2) As I mentioned in the post, Kabeli A is feasible even at this cost. This is due to lower interest rate from IFC.
      3) Multinational consultants are always expensive.
      4) "Foreign funded projects may have different standards to which design & other studies are conducted". I could not agree more. This is the primary reason why the project cost is always at a higher side. I hope you agree with me in this case. Huge chunk money goes into the pocket of their so called international consultants and expertise.

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    3. I disagree with your argument:-

      1) Higher cost due to forex risk. Higher cost means higher debt. When you have a local currency PPA, I think every foreign investor will try to do the cost control in order to mitigate the risk of currency depreciation against US dollar. I will elaborate this.

      Hydropower revenue stream is pretty much fixed beforehand because of the pre-determined PPA rates and the contracted energy. In such case, all you can play is the cost side of the project to make it more profitable. The lower the project cost, the higher the profit margin you get from the fixed revenue.

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    4. My views after the comparison:-

      Before moving to my opinions, you forgot an important thing. All the project schemes are RoR except Kabeli A which is PRoR. Pondage project requires more land compared to RoR. Also, the structures in the headworks area will be big. This will surely increase the project cost. But I do not think it is an acceptable excuse.

      We do not have "time of the day rates" or "peak hour rate". We have flat PPA rates. As an investor why to invest more when you do not get higher rates for providing additional energy in the peak hours? So I consider this to be unnecessary. I do not understand why Kabeli A has gone for peaking RoR. Is it a mandatory requirement to get IFC's funding?

      Anyways, the way they escalate the project cost in the names of so many compliances and international consultants are pretty irrelevant in my opinion. Some may argue that the project cost is justifiable as long as the project is financially attractive.

      In fact, it is correct. But, is it the right way when local developers are constructing projects at almost the half price?


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  2. Thank you for taking the time out to respond. I agree with most of your points, except for the forex one, which is very important to understand, especially since the PPA is in NPR.

    When you have a USD denominated debt, you have to return it in USD. Both interest and the principal amounts.

    You may have borrowed 100 USD, when the rate was say, 100 NPR/USD, so you got 10,000 NPR. When returning, if the NPR depreciates, you will have to return the same 100 USD, at a rate of say 120 NPR/USD. So now, even though you got 10,000 NPR initially, you may have to pay back 12,000 NPR (100 USD) as per the rate prevailing.

    The same goes with interest paid too. If the NPR depreciates, the amount paid in NPR keeps on increasing. That is the reason why the interest rate on dollar denominated debt is lower than the one denominated in NPR.

    Inflation, interest rate and currency depreciation are all interconnected. Economics.

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    Replies
    1. I understand the pain of local currency PPA for USD denominated debt. But how does escalating project is interrelated to local currency PPA? If I were you, I would focus on lowering the project cost to mitigate the currency depreciation in such case. Lower cost means lower debt which will eventually mitigate this risk to some extent.

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