Chinese presence in Nepal

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s recent Nepal visit has sent alarm bells ringing in the corridors of power in New Delhi. While in Kathmandu, Yi announced a five-fold increase in official Chinese aid to Nepal, from US $24 million today to US $128 million by 2015-16.

Additionally, China has pledged around US $1.6 billion in electricity infrastructure, easily surpassing the US $1 billion in soft loans announced by Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi during his November visit to Kathmandu. Indian foreign policy hawks see these developments as evidence of a steady erosion of Indian influence in the subcontinent, largely owing to the previous Manmohan Singh government’s long neglect of India’s near neighborhood. To add insult to injury, last year China for the first time surpassed India in investment pledges to Nepal. That is not all. Even more alarmingly for Indian hardliners, China has promised to extend its rail network right up to the Nepal border: Kerung in Solukhumbu district is expected to be connected to Tibet’s Shigastse in a 540-km rail network in the next few years. In their eyes, China’s encirclement of India’s ‘backyard’ is complete. 

They have a point. As they allege, the near-neighborhood was completely neglected by the erstwhile Singh government. Its delegation of all Nepal-related responsibilities to its security and spy agencies badly backfired. The anti-India sentiment in Nepal surged and our political leadership started courting China which seemed to be offering generous help—no strings attached. So, yes, Chinese influence in Nepal has increased: economically and increasingly even geo strategically as road and rail connectivity between the two countries continues to grow apace. Yet there is no cause for alarm in New Delhi either. Since he assumed office last May, Modi has made re-rebuilding India’s frayed relationships in South Asia one of his main foreign policy priorities, and he seems to have a soft spot for Nepal in particular. As political engagements between the two countries are revived, India, traditionally Nepal’s closest friend owing to the expansive cultural and religious affinities and people-to-people relations between the two countries, could regain its lost sway here—but with an important catch. 

India must desist from trying to dictate terms in Nepal, as it has been wont to in recent times, most troublingly during Manmohan Singh’s ten years in office. The signals from PM Modi have so far been mixed. His emphasis on mutual harnessing of hydropower and rebuilding economic ties with Nepal is well-placed. But his assertion while in Kathmandu that the new Nepali constitution must be an outcome of ‘consensus’, though correct, was unsuitable for a visiting head of government. It reignited fears that Modi, like his predecessor, is also bent on pursuing a muscular Nepal policy. China’s growing presence in Nepal should be a wake-up call for India. The choice before it could not be starker: continue to sow the seeds of suspicion in Nepal and push our planners and policymakers farther into the open arms of China or work with Nepal on mutually beneficial agreements on power, trade and connectivity to regain the trust of Nepali people, and, in the process, also regain its lost clout. 

Source: Republica