High time to use water resources to reduce Nepal’s dependence on India

Finally, the much awaited constitution is with us. This could be the end of political deadlock that we have been facing for decades. Most of us, including me, are hopeful that this constitution will bring peace and prosperity.

The new constitution endorsed by more than two thirds of the Constituent Assembly (CA) members came into effect against a backdrop of increasing protests by few politicians in Terai. The protests were thought to be organized under the direct influence of India.

While the majority is optimistic about the new constitution, the recent Indian attitude towards Nepal has raised some serious questions. 

It was not so long ago when we celebrated the signing of Power Trade Agreement (PTA) and Power Development Agreement (PDA) with India. The celebration was justified at that time as history shows us that natural resources play an important role in the path from poverty to prosperity. And access to Indian market means, there is no market risk to our generated electricity.

One of the most important pre-requisite for the exploitation of natural resource is the political stability. We Nepalis know better than anybody else. Political stability and hydropower development go hand in hand.

But the visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankhar just before the promulgation revealed that India wanted the promulgation of the new constitution only after reaching agreements with agitating political forces. Previously, India had officially welcomed the constitution two days before the visit of Indian envoy. 

The timing of India's suggestion came out at a time when more than 90 percent of CA members endorsed the new constitution. The small groups of political leaders who boycotted the voting are based in Terai, a region where politicians maintain a strong tie with India. 

The dual nature of Indian politics over the Nepali agenda has forced me to dig out the actual intention of India. While there may be a lot of interest in Nepal, my focus will be on hydropower.

IS INDIA KEEN TO TAP OUR HYDRO RESOURCES?

India is also facing a severe energy crisis just like Nepal. Over 40 percent of the country’s people, mostly living in the rural areas, do not have access to electricity and one-third of Indian businesses cite expensive and unreliable power as one of their main business constraints (World Bank, 2012).

The energy mismatch, however, does not mean that India has no potential. Rahman et. al (2011) states that India has hydropower reserves of 150,000 MW. In addition, India heavily depends on energy coal-based thermal energy although it has vast untapped hydropower resources. Only 23 percent of the total hydro resource has been harnessed so far (World Bank, 2012). 

In such case, we will be stupid if we think India is now desperate to tap our hydropower resources when it is not able to fully exploit its own. On top of that, India is one of the biggest coal producing nations in the world; its electricity baseline is coal based thermal plant.

However, the Indian ambassador to Nepal said "India needs 800,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2030, of which 507,000 megawatts should be fulfilled through water resources alone. We have plans to produce electricity from nuclear and gas plants too. So it is our necessity to meet the huge power demands in the days to come (Ranjitkar, 2014).”

While the scenario may change over the time, but for now, India is not in a hurry to import energy from Nepal. 

The intention was even clearer when GMR, an Indian company developing 900 MW Upper Karnali project in Nepal, explored the opportunity of selling its generated energy to Bangladesh rather than in India.

THE ACTUAL INTERST OF INDIA.

Whenever we talk about our rivers, the first thing that comes to our mind is hydropower generation. We tend to forget other important usage such as clean drinking water and irrigation. 

The perennial rivers fed by the snow-capped mountain in the north not only provide ideal locations for hydropower development but also serves as a lifeline for millions of people including Indians in the south. 

By nature, water flows downstream. And in this context, Nepal holds an advantageous position over India, by being an upper riparian country. 

The lower riparian country, India, is unfortunately poor in terms of fresh water sources. It is home to about 17 percent of the world’s population, but the country has less than 4 percent of its water resources (Moudgil, 2015). About one-third of its surface water is dependent on foreign-originating rivers (Moudgil, 2015).

Among many foreign-originating rivers, the Mahakali, the Gandaki, the Karnali and the Koshi rivers of Nepal are the major tributaries of the Ganga River which nourish Indian land.

These rivers contribute to more than 45 percent of the total flow of the River Ganga; nearly 70 percent in the dry season and 87 percent in the three critical non-monsoon months, i.e. March to May (WWF, 2009).

The Ganga river basin is one of the most fertile and densely populated areas in the world. It is home to more than 500 million people. 

Now, imagine if we construct mega storage dams in our country and divert water for our own purpose like clean drinking water and irrigation (as of now, our agriculture is based on rain water). We will be enjoying huge economic benefits while there will be a devastating effect in India. This wild imagination is actually not just a fantasy.

There was a huge controversy when China planned hydropower projects in the Bramhaputra River that actually originates in Tibet. The Bramhaputra River is one of the major rivers in India. Later on, China constructed RoR hydropower project despite of several protest. 

Now, China is planning to divert water from the Bramhaputra to its northern part; the vast majority of people reside there (Moudgil, 2015). 

The importance of upper riparian has been well understood by India. Any disturbance in river flow upstream will have a direct impact downstream and this is something that India will always want to protect.

India's interest was clearly reflected when it sent a controversial proposal to Nepal last year. It was called "Energy Cooperation". If it was accepted, it would have not only barred third countries from investing in Nepal's hydro sector but Nepal, itself, would have to seek permission from India for harnessing its own resources.

The proposal was later rejected by Nepal after the widespread protest. However, the Indian intention is now clear. It wants a direct control over Nepal's water resources. 

HYDROPOWER IS NOT IN THE TOP OF THE LIST.

In the wake of India's booming population, I am afraid, what it values the most is the source of fresh water for drinking purpose and irrigation. It looks like hydropower is just a by-product; at least for few years.

It is predicted that water demand in India will grow to almost 1.5 trillion m3 by 2030, driven by domestic demand for rice, wheat, and sugar for a growing population whereas India’s current water supply is approximately 740 billion m3 (McKinsey & Company, 2008). 

This means, India would need to double its water-generation capacity by the year 2030 when it is already struggling to meet the current demand. This is why India wants a direct control over Nepal’s vast water resources. 

A direct control will have a number of benefits to India.

First, mega storage dams will supply clean drinking water to millions of people. Second, it provides a controlled water flow throughout the year in the downstream which will be beneficial for irrigation purpose. Lastly, it provides a flood control mechanism. 

This part of world receives plenty of rainfall during four to five months of a year while the other months receive less or no precipitation at all. During monsoon, flood is not uncommon. In fact, it claims many lives and damages billion worth of property every year.

Lou et al. (2015) ranked India number one in terms of the number of people affected by river flooding every year. The cost of reconstruction and rehabilitation is in billions of US dollars.

                                        Source: Lou et al. (2015)

NEPAL’S TACTICS.

a) Regarding water usage.

The use of water resource is always a sensitive issue. If there is ever to be a Third World War, many believe it will be fought over water, with South Asia serving as the flashpoint (Moudgil, 2015).

This sensitive issue has to be handled through careful dialogues and negotiations. The international protocols and international practice for water usage right between countries have to be examined carefully while a nation-wide debate regarding the downstream release benefits has to be discussed before sitting on a table with India.

In addition, there are few things we have to be very clear among ourselves. First, if we are to provide a controlled water flow to India by drowning hectares of our land, then India must provide compensation to Nepal. The regulated flow not only provides precious water during dry season but also saves billions caused by river flooding during monsoon season. For this, India has to pay us.

Second, there should not be any restriction. Nepal should have the privilege to use its water for its own purpose without any strings attached.  

b) Regarding Hydropower. 

 i) Present electricity scenario

The annual peak power demand of the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS) in fiscal year 2014/15 was 1,291.80 MW with 585 MW load shedding (Nepal Electricity Authority, 2015). NEA predicts that there will be surplus electricity in near future as 1,521.28 MW is under construction.

The prediction, however, does not reflect the real picture. It is actually calculated under suppressed economic growth.

In fact, Nepal has, by far, one of the lowest per capita electricity consumptions in South Asia.

Countries	kWh per Capita in 2012
Afghanistan	Not Available
Bangladesh	279
Bhutan	Not Available
India	744
Maldives	Not Available
Pakistan	452
Nepal	119
Sri Lanka	527

 (World Bank, 2015)

The low electricity consumption is not only due to low electricity production but also due to limited access. Only 76.3 percent of the total population has access to energy in 2010 (World Bank, 2015).

On the other hand, the developing nations of East Asia & Pacific have per capita electricity consumption of 2,518.7 kWh in 2011 while Nepal had 115 kWh in the same year (World Bank, 2015). Just to recall, the 13th Plan (2013-16) aims to graduate Nepal to the developing country status by 2022 from the current least developed country status.

ii) The way forward is to focus on internal demand

We are obsessed with the idea of minting cash by exporting energy to India without knowing the exact amount of electricity we need internally. Although there is no harm to export excess electricity, the first priority should be always fulfilling the internal demand.

The actual internal demand of electricity is pretty high. Expert claims that the current energy need in Nepal is as high as 5,000 MW and the demand will be double in five years time if we are to attain a normal economic growth (Shrestha, 2015). 

HOW TO KEEP OUR INTERNAL DEMAND GROWING? 

Nepal imports petroleum products worth about NPR 100 billion every year. If electricity generated from hydropower is used for cooking and heating purposes, deforestation and large amount of money spent for importing petroleum products (especially LPG gas) would be controlled. Still, 64% of Nepali households use firewood as their main source for cooking fuel (Winrock International, 2013).

The acute energy crisis has badly affected many industries; some are in the verge to shut down forcing millions of Nepali people to seek employment abroad.

"THINK BIG"

It is a shame that we have adopted fossil fuel based transport system when we are blessed with hydropower resources. Not so long ago, we had a ropeway (Hetauda-Kathmandu) and trolley bus (Tripureshwor-Suryabinayak). Sadly, both of them are not in operation due to lack of electricity and poor management.

Considering Nepal's topography and socio-economic conditions, ropeways are an ideal mode of transportation. Research has shown that it is cost effective at a time when the petroleum price is skyrocketing. 

Similarly, it is also a high time to debate on the relevance of clean electrical based transport in Nepal. With big tech and car companies all around the world pumping money in battery development, we are on the verge of a power evolution. In no time, we will see fast charging and long lasting batteries (the limitation of current battery technology is restricting the mass use of electric vehicles)

Also, the use of electric vehicle could be the solution of night time spilled energy. 

In addition, implementing electric train services as mass transport system on feasible routes such as East West Highway, Fast Track Road Corridor, Kathmandu – Pokhara and Kathmandu – Khasa corridors will greatly reduces the burden of import bills by offsetting the use of petroleum products. 

Lastly, we should stop planning for immediate needs only. A long term focus is the need of the hour.

References

LOU, T., MADDOCKS, A., ICELAND, C., WARD, P. & WINSEMIUM, H., (2015) World’s 15 Countries with the Most People Exposed to River Floods [Online] March 05^th 2015. Available from: http://www.wri.org/blog/2015/03/world’s-15-countries-most-people-exposed-river-floods [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

McKINSEY & COMPANY (2008) Charting our water future [Online] 2008. Available from: http://www.mckinsey.com/Client_Service/Sustainability/Latest_thinking/Charting_our_water_future [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

MOUDGIL, M. (2015) South Asian Water Wars: An Improbability [Online] September 14^th 2015. Available from: http://www.fairobserver.com/region/central_south_asia/the-improbability-of-a-water-war-in-south-asia-93201/ [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]  

NEPAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY (2015) Annual Report of Nepal Electricity Authority [Online] 2015. Available from: http://www.nea.org.np/images/supportive_docs/year-review-2014-15.pdf  [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

RAHMAN, S.H., WIJAYATUNGA, P.D.C., GUNATILAKE, H, FERNANDO P.N.  (2011) Energy Trade in South Asia Opportunities and Challenges. [Online] December 2011. Available from: http://www.adb.org/sites/default/files/publication/29703/energy-trade-south-asia.pdf [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

RANJITKAR, S.B. (2014) Nepal-India Cooperation in Hydropower Development in Nepal [Online] July  27^th 2012. Available from: http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/HL1407/S00160/nepal-india-cooperation-in-hydropower-development-in-nepal.htm [Accessed: 23^rdSeptember 2015]

SHRESTHA, R. (2015) FDI in Hydropower and Choice of Jurisdiction [Online] March 9^th 2015. Available from: http://www.ratnasansar.com/ [Accessed: 23^rdSeptember 2015]

WINROCK INTERNATIONAL (2013) Environment: Forestry, Energy & Ecosystem Services [Online] July 2013. Available from: http://winrock.org.np/uploads/project/two%20pager-Putnam%20ICS_July%202013_20130814124113.pdf  [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

WORLD BANK (2012) India Hydropower Development [Online] March 23^rd 2012. Available from: http://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2012/03/23/india-hydropower-development [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]

WORLD BANK (2015) World Development Indicators: Electricity production, sources and access [Online] 2015. Available from: http://wdi.worldbank.org/ [Accessed: 23^rdSeptember 2015]

WWF (2009) First field piloting of National Water Plan in Nepal [Online] January 05^th2009. Available from: http://www.wwfnepal.org/?154681/First-field-piloting-of-National-Water-Plan-in-Nepal [Accessed: 23^rd September 2015]