The new constitution, endorsed by more than two-thirds of the Constituent Assembly (CA) members, came into effect against a backdrop of increasing protests by a few politicians in the Terai. The protests were thought to be organized under the direct influence of India.
One of the most important prerequisites for the exploitation of natural resources is political stability. We Nepalis know this better than anyone else — political stability and hydropower development go hand in hand.
But the visit of Indian Foreign Secretary Jaishankar, just before the promulgation, revealed that India wanted the new constitution to be introduced only after reaching agreements with the agitating political forces. Previously, India had officially welcomed the constitution two days before the envoy’s visit.
The timing of India's suggestion came when more than 90 percent of CA members had already endorsed the new constitution. The small groups of political leaders who boycotted the voting were based in the Terai, a region where politicians maintain strong ties with India.
Is India Keen to Tap Our Hydro Resources?
India is facing a severe energy crisis, much like Nepal. Over 40 percent of India’s people, mostly in rural areas, do not have access to electricity, and one-third of Indian businesses cite expensive and unreliable power as one of their main constraints (World Bank, 2012).
However, this energy mismatch does not mean that India lacks potential. Rahman et al. (2011) state that India has hydropower reserves of 150,000 MW. Despite this, India heavily relies on coal-based thermal energy and has only harnessed 23 percent of its hydropower potential so far (World Bank, 2012).
In this case, it would be naïve to think India is desperate to tap Nepal’s hydropower resources when it has yet to fully exploit its own. Moreover, India is one of the biggest coal-producing nations; its electricity baseline is coal-based thermal plants.
However, the Indian ambassador to Nepal remarked:
"India needs 800,000 megawatts (MW) of electricity by 2030, of which 507,000 megawatts should be fulfilled through water resources alone. We have plans to produce electricity from nuclear and gas plants too. So it is our necessity to meet the huge power demands in the days to come" (Ranjitkar, 2014).
While the scenario may change over time, for now, India is not in a hurry to import energy from Nepal.
The intention became even clearer when GMR, an Indian company developing the 900 MW Upper Karnali project in Nepal, explored opportunities to sell its generated energy to Bangladesh rather than to India.
The Actual Interest of India
Whenever we talk about our rivers, the first thing that comes to mind is hydropower generation. We tend to forget other important uses such as clean drinking water and irrigation.
The perennial rivers, fed by snow-capped mountains in the north, not only provide ideal locations for hydropower development but also serve as lifelines for millions of people, including those in India to the south.
By nature, water flows downstream, and in this context, Nepal holds an advantageous position over India as an upper riparian country.
India, the lower riparian country, is unfortunately poor in terms of freshwater resources. It is home to about 17 percent of the world’s population but has less than 4 percent of its water resources (Moudgil, 2015). About one-third of its surface water depends on foreign-originating rivers (Moudgil, 2015).
Among many foreign-originating rivers, the Mahakali, Gandaki, Karnali, and Koshi rivers of Nepal are major tributaries of the Ganga River, which nourishes Indian land.
These rivers contribute more than 45 percent of the total flow of the River Ganga — nearly 70 percent during the dry season and 87 percent during the critical non-monsoon months (March to May) (WWF, 2009).
There was a huge controversy when China planned hydropower projects on the Brahmaputra River, which originates in Tibet. The Brahmaputra is one of India’s major rivers. Despite several protests, China went ahead with a Run-of-River hydropower project.
Now, China is planning to divert water from the Brahmaputra to its northern regions, where the majority of its population resides (Moudgil, 2015).
The importance of upper riparian rights has been well understood by India. Any disturbance in upstream river flow directly impacts the downstream areas — something India will always seek to prevent.
India's interests were clearly reflected when it sent a controversial "Energy Cooperation" proposal to Nepal last year. If accepted, it would have not only barred third countries from investing in Nepal's hydropower sector but also required Nepal to seek India's permission to harness its own resources.
Hydropower Is Not at the Top of the List
Given India's booming population, it appears that what it values most is access to freshwater for drinking and irrigation, with hydropower being merely a by-product — at least for the time being.
It is predicted that water demand in India will grow to almost 1.5 trillion m³ by 2030, driven by domestic demand for rice, wheat, and sugar. Currently, India’s water supply is approximately 740 billion m³ (McKinsey & Company, 2008).
This means India would need to double its water-generation capacity by 2030 while it already struggles to meet current demands. This is why India wants direct control over Nepal’s vast water resources.
A direct control would offer multiple benefits to India:
- Mega storage dams would supply clean drinking water to millions.
- Controlled water flow year-round would greatly benefit irrigation.
- It would provide a flood control mechanism.
This region receives heavy rainfall for four to five months, while the rest of the year sees little to none. Flooding during the monsoon season claims many lives and causes billions in damages annually.
Nepal’s Tactics
a) Regarding Water Usage
Water resources are a sensitive issue. Many believe that if there is ever a Third World War, it will be fought over water, with South Asia at the center (Moudgil, 2015).
This issue must be handled carefully through diplomatic dialogue and negotiations. International protocols and practices on water rights must be studied thoroughly, and a nation-wide debate on the benefits and trade-offs of downstream release must precede any negotiations with India.
Moreover, we must be clear among ourselves:
- If Nepal is to provide regulated water flow to India by submerging its own land, India must compensate Nepal. Controlled flows provide both precious dry-season water and save billions of dollars in flood damages.
- Nepal must maintain the sovereign right to use its water resources for its own purposes without any external restrictions.
b) Regarding Hydropower
i) Present Electricity Scenario
The annual peak power demand of the Integrated Nepal Power System (INPS) in the fiscal year 2014/15 was 1,291.80 MW, with a 585 MW shortfall (Nepal Electricity Authority, 2015). NEA predicts that there will be a surplus soon, with 1,521.28 MW under construction.
However, these predictions are based on suppressed economic growth and do not reflect Nepal’s actual energy needs.
Countries
|
kWh per Capita in 2012
|
Afghanistan
|
Not Available
|
Bangladesh
|
279
|
Bhutan
|
Not Available
|
India
|
744
|
Maldives
|
Not Available
|
Pakistan
|
452
|
Nepal
|
119
|
Sri Lanka
|
527
|
Only 76.3 percent of the population had access to energy in 2010 (World Bank, 2015). Meanwhile, the developing nations of East Asia & Pacific had an average per capita electricity consumption of 2,518.7 kWh in 2011.
If Nepal aims to graduate to "developing country" status by 2022, energy access and consumption must increase dramatically.
ii) The Way Forward: Focus on Internal Demand
We are obsessed with exporting electricity to India without accurately assessing our internal needs. Although exporting excess energy is fine, fulfilling domestic demand should be the first priority.
Experts claim Nepal’s current energy need is as high as 5,000 MW, and the demand could double within five years if economic growth normalizes (Shrestha, 2015).
How to Keep Our Internal Demand Growing?
Nepal imports petroleum products worth about NPR 100 billion annually. If electricity generated from hydropower is used for cooking and heating, deforestation and the massive petroleum import bill would be reduced. Currently, 64% of Nepali households still use firewood as their main source for cooking (Winrock International, 2013).
The acute energy crisis has crippled industries, forcing millions of Nepalis to seek employment abroad.
Think Big
It is a shame that Nepal abandoned electric ropeways and trolley buses when blessed with abundant hydropower resources. Considering our topography and socio-economic conditions, ropeways are ideal.
Additionally, with the global push toward electric vehicles, Nepal should debate and invest in clean, electricity-based transportation. The ongoing battery revolution will make electric vehicles more practical in the near future.
Electric trains along the East-West Highway, the Fast Track Road Corridor, Kathmandu–Pokhara, and Kathmandu–Khasa routes would significantly reduce petroleum imports.
NEPAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY (2015) Annual Report of Nepal Electricity Authority [Online] 2015. Available from: http://www.nea.org.np/images/supportive_docs/year-review-2014-15.pdf [Accessed: 23rd September 2015]
Very good topic, similar texts are I do not know if they are as good as your work out. high water bills can mean plumbing problems
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